Globe & Mail:
… A plausible scenario for US application of military force against Canada to seize our oil resources goes something like this. An independence referendum in Alberta – during which separatists receive a huge infusion of grey MAGA money – sees a majority vote to remain part of Canada, but with 30 per cent or more voting for separation. Mr. Trump declares the result is “fake” and that actual support for separation was “well over” 50 per cent. Alberta separatists then appeal to the US for help, claiming various kinds of oppression. The US moves troops to the northern Montana border and tells the rest of Canada that Alberta must be allowed to join America as the “51st state.”
Canada should game out such scenarios and plan specifically how we’d respond. In the above situation, ensuring electoral-process integrity is clearly job one. We can also make it clear to the US that any use of military force will be extremely costly, by dramatically accelerating investments in national service and homeland defence, rapidly building out domestic defence industries, and developing a national drone strategy.
Finally, we should bolster ties with traditional allies and novel partners alike and work alongside those who are similarly threatened by giant neighbours, such as Finland, the Baltic republics, Mexico and Taiwan. We should aim to marshal a global consensus that such flagrant violations of international law are unacceptable and will bring the US costly reputational harm, as has been true for Russia – harm that will only grow exponentially if the US repeats such actions in Canada or elsewhere.
Read the whole article:
Thomas Homer-Dixon and Adam Gordon, The Globe and Mail: We need to prepare for the possibility that the US uses military coercion against Canada https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-we-need-to-prepare-for-the-possibility-that-the-us-uses-military/