Author: NatSec.ca

With US’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to American extended nuclear deterrence

Rafael Loss, European Council on Foreign Relations, writes:

America’s credibility is in tatters. According to ECFR’s latest public opinion poll, fewer Europeans than ever consider the United States under President Donald Trump “an ally that shares our interests and values”. This shift has been building since at least February 2024, shortly after Trump encouraged Russia to attack “delinquent” US allies on the campaign trail—an intervention that crystallized fears about Washington’s reliability and fuelled Europeans’ desire for alternative models of nuclear deterrence.

Britain and France, Europe’s two nuclear-armed NATO allies, are central in the resultant conversations. Britain’s nuclear weapons have long been committed to the defence of the alliance, whereas France’s deterrent sits outside of the NATO framework. As such, French president Emmanuel Macron’s address on nuclear deterrence, which is due to take place on March 2nd, is sure to draw particular scrutiny.

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America’s eroding credibility means that it remains necessary for France and Britain to retain their nuclear forces, especially when considering future NATO security. However, to become instruments of non-proliferation or escalation management, they require development. To borrow from the latest US Strategic Posture Commission, French and British nuclear forces—as the core of a future European strategic deterrent—likely need to grow in size and change composition (or both) to account for structural changes in US defence strategy and Trump-specific hits to US credibility. But they would not have to replicate the US posture to achieve this.

Moreover, France, Britain and their European partners would also have to agree on joint rhetoric and actions to signal resolve and capability in European deterrence. This is not only to assure each other, but also to deter potential adversaries.

Europe should prepare for coordinated cyberattacks to their energy infrastructure from Russia

In December 2025, a wave of Russian cyberattacks hit energy facilities across Poland, a sign that Moscow may be willing to expand its energy campaign beyond Ukraine.

Chelsea Cederbaum, a senior threat intelligence analyst at the American cybersecurity company Recorded Future, wrote “there’s a high risk of escalation by Russia over the next two years” that could included cyberattacks coordinated across wider regions of Europe’s grid, drone flights close to critical infrastructure, and Kremlin-sponsored digital disinformation campaigns designed to paint European countries as unprepared.

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UN General Assembly resolution on Ukraine approved

The UN General Assembly, to mark the fourth year of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, adopted a resolution calling for “a just and lasting peace” in Ukraine. But to do so, they had to reject a last-minute proposal from the US to delete two crucial paragraphs from the draft text that included references to Ukraine’s “sovereignty” and “territorial integrity.”

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‘Europe has woken up’: Germany, France, Italy, Poland and the UK commit to produce low-cost drones within a year

Five NATO allies, Germany, France, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom, on Friday February 20, 2026, committed to jointly develop new low-cost autonomous drones.

Defence ministers from the five countries – newly known as the E5 countries – meeting in Krakow, said they would launch an initiative called Low-Cost Effectors and Autonomous Platforms (LEAP) with the aim of producing drones within a year.

The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, was in attendance for the announcement.

Press conference after the meeting of the E5 defense ministers

Sources:

Politico: 5 NATO allies agree to produce low-cost drones https://www.politico.eu/article/5-nato-allies-agree-to-produce-low-cost-drones/

Euronews: E5 defence ministers in Krakow say ‘Europe has woken up’ https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/20/e5-defence-ministers-in-krakow-say-europe-has-woken-up

Industry Minister Mélanie Joly delivers remarks in Toronto

In the days after the unveiling of the Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly addresses the Empire Club of Canada and the Ontario Chamber of Commerce.

Industry Minister Mélanie Joly delivers remarks in Toronto – February 19, 2026

Reference:

Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/corporate/reports-publications/industrial-strategy/security-sovereignty-prosperity.html

96% of the world’s nuclear weapons are held by states with authoritarian leaders

Russia and the United States are equally to blame for ending a process begun in the 1960s and marked by the first strategic arms limitation treaty (SALT) in 1972. The construction of over a dozen interlocking agreements over these decades worked to first limit the growth of nuclear stockpiles and then manage their reduction. We went from 70,000 nuclear bombs at the height of the Cold War to just over 12,000 today.

For authoritarian leaders like Putin and Trump, however, these treaties are a restraint on their power. Ending arms control is part of their assault on the global international order; part of the same impulse that caused Putin to invade Ukraine in violation of existing laws and Trump to rupture the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance in pursuit of territorial expansion. Although they may still agree to voluntary limitations on their weapons, these do not have the binding force of a treaty and can easily be violated. In their view, their power and wealth depend on military might, not pieces of paper.

Source:

Joseph Cirincione, Le Monde Editorial: ‘Today, 96% of the world’s nuclear weapons are held by states with authoritarian leaders’ https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2026/02/18/today-96-of-the-world-s-nuclear-weapons-are-held-by-states-with-authoritarian-leaders_6750613_23.html

Germany is preparing its foreign intelligence service for a world where the US stops information sharing

Germany wants to boost and unfetter its country’s foreign intelligence service (BND), giving it much broader authority to perpetrate acts of sabotage, conduct offensive cyber operations and more aggressively carry out espionage.

Germany wants to continue working with the Americans, “but if a [U.S.] president, whoever that may be, decides in the future to go it alone without the Europeans … then we must be able to stand on our own two feet,” said Marc Henrichmann, the chairman of a special committee in Germany’s Bundestag that oversees the country’s intelligence services.

Source:

Nette Nöstlinger, Politico: Germany plans to give spies vast new powers in rollback of postwar restraints https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-foreign-intelligence-agency-power-bnd/

Prime Minister Mark Carney launches Canada’s first Defence Industrial Strategy

“The work of defending Canada is the work of building Canada. Security and prosperity are mutually reinforcing foundations of the true North, strong and free. Our new Defence Industrial Strategy ensures Canada remains a sovereign nation, in charge of its own destiny. That’s Canada strong, and that’s what we are building, together.”

Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada

The world is changing rapidly. The international rules-based order is fading, and technological change is expanding the fields of conflict. In response, Canada’s new government is focused on what Canadians can control: rebuilding, rearming, and reinvesting in the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). Canada is on track to hit our 2% NATO spending target this fiscal year and applications to join the CAF are up nearly 13%.

To protect Canada’s sovereignty, build Canadian prosperity, and strengthen Canadian strategic autonomy, the federal government is changing how Canada invests in defence.

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Faced with a growing Russian threat, German and British military chiefs make the case for rearmament

The defence chief of Germany’s Bundeswehr, General Carsten Breuer, and the United Kingdom’s chief of the defence staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, have made an unprecedented joint statement, published in The Guardian and German newspaper Die Welt, in which they make their “moral” case for rearmament and prepare for the threat of war with Russia.

Published in the wake of the Munich Security Conference, Breuer and Knighton said they were speaking “not merely as the military leaders of two of Europe’s largest military spenders, but as voices for a Europe that must now confront uncomfortable truths about its security.”

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UK Prime Minister Starmer warned Europe must move towards ‘interdependence’, calling for a more European-led NATO

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, February 14, 2026, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned Europe must shift away from “overdependance” of US and move towards European “interdependence”, calling for a more European-led NATO underpinned by deeper UK-EU defence and industrial cooperation.

PM Starmer warned the security environment had shifted dramatically, that Russia’s aggression was now being felt across the continent through disinformation, cyberattacks and sabotage, alongside its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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