Everything is connected
“Greenland belongs to its people, and only Denmark and Greenland can decide on matters concerning their relations,” the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Denmark said in a joint statement on Tuesday January 6, 2026.
“NATO has made clear that the Arctic region is a priority and European Allies are stepping up,” the statement said. “We and many other Allies have increased our presence, activities, and investments, to keep the Arctic safe and to deter adversaries.”
According to data compiled by the IISS, Russian shadow warfare attacks targeting Europe’s critical infrastructure have accelerated steadily since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and intensified further in 2024 and 2025, with incidents spanning the Baltics and Nordics, Central Europe, the Balkans, and the Mediterranean in patterns that reflect strategic intent.
These operations include sabotage of transport and logistics hubs, attacks on energy and communications infrastructure, disruptions to undersea cables, and acts of espionage, arson, vandalism, GPS jamming, and proxy-enabled activity carried out by third-country nationals, all designed to impose cumulative pressure while remaining just below NATO’s Article 5 threshold.
Russia is exploiting the gaps between peace and war, law enforcement and military response, and public and private responsibility, confident that NATO’s legal thresholds, political caution, and consensus-driven paralysis will continue to prevent a unified response to an attack that is already underway.
Read more:
January 4, 2025
Olga Lautman and Luchkov Andrii, Malign Influence Operations: Russia’s Sabotage Operations Quadrupled in 2025: Europe’s Rude Awakening
A world divided into spheres of influence poses decisive new challenges to the sovereignty of the states inside them. Canada and Mexico will watch what happened in Venezuela and begin thinking the unthinkable. What if they have to defend themselves, not against Russia and China, but against their next-door neighbour?
The predators who promote spheres of influence promise us a more stable world: no more global policemen, no more universalist moral claims like human rights, warranting intrusion in the affairs of predators. Stability will be built henceforth on forthright moral relativism—what’s right for me is my business, what’s right for you is your business—and peace depends on armed deterrence in a law of the jungle.
In the world we’ve entered, weaker countries must learn self-reliance, resilience and guile to keep the predators at bay. A weak and divided Europe can’t continue to give America moral lessons, while trying to regulate America’s economic giants. Its entire rationale as a political project depends now on giving itself the capital markets to build their own economic strength and the military capability to defend themselves. Canada and Mexico must make a lot of new friends fast, establish new economic connections, and break down its internal barriers to an efficient and productive economy. If these middling powers face up to their own difficulties, a new multilateralism could take shape, brought into concert by their shared desire to hem in the power of the predators. If the middle powers band together, they might get through the 21st century with their sovereignties enhanced. If they go it alone or make the mistake of cozying up to one or other of the predators, they might find themselves swallowed up by one of the beasts.
Source: Michael Ignatieff’s Substack, January 4, 2026
Richard Masson, Vice-Chair of the World Petroleum Council, says Venezuela’s oil production has been in long-term decline and there has been a ‘huge overreaction’ with what this means for Canada.
In an interview with NBC News, Trump said new Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez was cooperating in the wake of the US military invasion into Venezuela’s capital that led to the capture of the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, on Saturday, January 3, 2026.
Trump added his plans initially anticipated having to send in American forces again following the first operation, but that he currently does not believe a second attack will be necessary.
Still, Trump insisted that the US is “at war with people that sell drugs,” not with Venezuela.
Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty on Monday in New York City federal court to drug trafficking charges.
Source:
Jacob Wendler, Politico: Trump says he’s prepared to send more US troops to Venezuela if interim president doesn’t cooperate
The division of the world into spheres of influence implies that smaller countries cannot influence events, and it’s a grave mistake to imagine Venezuelans won’t try. Many of them wanted an American intervention, are overjoyed that Maduro is gone, and no wonder: He and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, together turned the richest country in South America into the poorest, fortifying their ugly security state with guns and surveillance systems purchased from autocracies around the world.
But now that Maduro is gone, the people who fought for years for justice, freedom, and self-determination aren’t going to want to live in a Trump-backed dictatorship staffed with Maduro’s cronies. One Venezuelan exile, who requested anonymity because of risks to his family, told me that on Saturday, he felt like he was on a roller coaster. First the elation of Maduro’s exit, then the shock of Trump’s press conference, then the angry realization that maybe nothing has changed and he still can’t go home.
Russia is intensifying covert attacks on key infrastructure in Germany in a campaign of hybrid warfare that Berlin views as a possible prelude to a wider conflict, according to a confidential defence ministry document titled ;Operationsplan Deutschland (OPLAN),’ obtained by Bloomberg.
As Germany positions itself as NATO’s main hub in Europe, it expects to be first targeted by Russia covertly via hybrid attacks on energy and defence infrastructure. The document summarizes guidelines for cooperation between different levels of government and institutions in case of conflict with Russia.
The far-left ‘Volcano’ extremist group claimed responsibility for the January 3, 2026 arson attack on a power station which affected 45,000 residences, shut down mobile phone connections, cut heating during freezing weather, stopped trains and forced hospitals to switch to back-up generators.
Berlin’s mayor said on Monday January 5, 2026, that the German capital’s core infrastructure needed better protection.
“Right now, Ukraine needs to strengthen its internal resilience — both for the sake of Ukraine’s recovery if diplomacy delivers results as swiftly as possible, and to reinforce our defense if, because of delays by our partners, it takes longer to bring this war to an end,” Zelenskyy wrote on X.
Freeland, who has Ukrainian ancestry, was deputy prime minister between 2019 and 2024. She has long been one of Canada’s most vocal opponents of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Source: CBC
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