Category: Armed Conflict

An armed conflict exist when there is an armed confrontation between the armed forces of States, or between governmental authorities and
organized armed groups, or between such groups within a State.

UK should prepare for a “worst-case scenario” in which Europe can no longer rely on US support in a crisis, and build stronger relations with “middle powers” such as Canada

In a report published on Friday, 2026.03.27, the British parliament’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy (JCNSS) said the UK government should prepare for a “worst-case scenario” in which Europe could no longer rely on US support in a crisis.

The report warned, “The UK must be prepared to take on more of the cost for its and Europe’s security through investing in partnerships and multilateral dialogues with other ‘middle powers’, for example Canada, Australia and India, to avoid being squeezed by great power competition between the United States and China.”

The UK currently relies on the US in several key national security areas, including maintenance of its Trident nuclear missiles, intelligence sharing, and major projects such as the F-35 fighter jet and Aukus submarine deal with Australia.

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‘Iran is likely to emerge weaker but more violent, aggressive, and vengeful’

Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, writing in Foreign Policy Magazine:

The Iranian regime is suffering heavy blows as a result of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign, but it is not on the verge of collapse. A prolonged war lasting months would increase the probability that it could fall, but it now appears that the war will end before that, with Iran’s current government in place. This means the Islamic Republic is likely to emerge weaker but more violent, aggressive, and vengeful.

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Beyond its borders, Iran will be forced to adapt some aspects of its foreign policy while striving to maintain others. It will likely be emboldened by having shown that it can almost completely close the Strait of Hormuz and dramatically impact global energy prices. Having lost several of its power projection assets, it will therefore rapidly invest in rebuilding the capabilities it needs to threaten shipping in the strait again, specifically its missile and drone programs. It will also enthusiastically remind whoever listens that it could renew its campaign in response to future pressure or threats.
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Trump’s threats to NATO reveal glaring absence of any strategy on Iran

Dan Sabbagh, the Guardian’s defence and security editor, writes:

If there was a moment when the absence of a US strategy on Iran was exposed, then this was it. Donald Trump demanded on Saturday that the UK, China, France, Japan and others participate in a naval escort for oil tankers through the strait of Hormuz.

Despite launching the attack on Iran, with Israel, the White House does not seem to have fully anticipated what was likely to follow. Iran had few good military options for fighting back, but attacking US bases, US allies and merchant shipping in the Gulf was the most obvious response – to try to impose costs on the west.

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Trump, fixated on military power, had no particular desire to work with any country other than Israel – and none wanted to join in starting a war against Iran. As a result, naval preparation by US allies before the start of the war was nonexistent. None of Britain, France, China and Japan had warships ready to take up convoy duties.

For any escort operation to be viable, it might require eight to 10 destroyers, according to Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, though that would be enough to protect only “five to 10 vessels, making a transit every day and a half”. That would amount to about 10% of prewar shipping volumes.

With his war of choice on Iran, Trump continues to do lasting damage to international trust in America

Edward Luce, the US national editor and a columnist at the Financial Times, writes:

Trump chose to go to war and has taken explicit satisfaction in his power of life and death. War is a grave step after all other options have been exhausted. That Trump had other courses of action is well understood. That he preferred this one is hard to unsee.

What the US attack on Iran could mean for national security

On 2026.03.05, Bruce Hoffman, senior fellow at US-based Council on Foreign Relations, wrote:

The Department of Homeland Security has reportedly warned of potential lone-wolf attacks and cyberattacks in the wake of the strikes, and state and local authorities have moved to heightened alert for any retaliation on American soil.

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Sleeper agents, lone actors inspired and motivated by Iran, cyberattacks on US infrastructure, and physical attacks on critical infrastructure are all possible.

The US and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026

On 2026.02.28, the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes on multiple sites and cities across Iran, assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other Iranian officials, striking a school with a Tomahawk missile, which killed some 165 people, including children, and starting yet another Gulf War.

Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israeli and US-allied countries and bases in the region, including Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates.

UN General Assembly resolution on Ukraine approved

The UN General Assembly, to mark the fourth year of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, adopted a resolution calling for “a just and lasting peace” in Ukraine. But to do so, they had to reject a last-minute proposal from the US to delete two crucial paragraphs from the draft text that included references to Ukraine’s “sovereignty” and “territorial integrity.”

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German Chancellor Merz opened the Munich Security Conference saying Europe must prepare to stand more firmly on its own

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speech at the opening of the Munich Security Conference, amounted to a strategic repositioning of Germany: still anchored in NATO, but preparing for a future in which American guarantees are less reliable and Europe must carry more responsibility.

“In the era of great powers, our freedom is no longer simply guaranteed. It is under threat,” said Merz.

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As the world inches back to a pre-WW2 order, the ‘middle powers’ face new challenges

In any age of economic stagnation and extremes of inequality, popular trust in democratic institutions corrodes. It has been corroding not just in the US but across the Western world for decades now. As such Trump may be a symptom, not a cause, of Carney’s “rupture” with the post-World War Two order.

Watching those old men making their way through the Normandy cemeteries was a graphic and poignant reminder that democracy, the rule of law, accountable government are not naturally occurring phenomena. They are not even, historically speaking, normal. They have to be fought for, built, sustained, defended.

And that is the challenge from here facing what Mark Carney called “the middle powers”.

Source:

Allan Little, BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c99kkerr93ko