Everything is connected
Trump has backed down from his threats of tariffs on European countries to push them to agree to a US purchase of Greenland.
While the European Union wants to continue trade ties with it’s largest trading partner, it warned the bloc will stand up for its interests.
The message for 2026 is clear: the security environment is increasingly complex and requires continuous monitoring and foresight. The public overview of military intelligence 2026 notes, among other things, the following:
- Russia continues its efforts to restore its global superpower status, and the war in Ukraine is ongoing. Russia is continuing its defence reform, but the changes have so far not significantly increased Russia’s military capacity in the vicinity of Finland. Russia’s extensive influence in Europe has increased over the past few years.
- The shift in power relations in the Middle East has become increasingly evident.
- The Baltic Sea has become a central point in international politics. Tensions have increased significantly since the beginning of 2022.
- The global security situation is characterized by a return to power politics and increasing tensions worldwide.
Canada and the US have exchanged military personnel for decades. Beyond joint task-forces, intelligence sharing, and organizations like NATO and NORAD, Canada’s DND also regularly sends members of the CAF on exchange programs with US military units, sometimes for years.
Canadian Brigadier-General Robert McBride is the deputy commanding general of operations for the US 11th Airborne Division in Alaska. His role in a division waiting to support US ICE is a pointed example of how Canadian military personnel are caught awkwardly between Trump’s orders, Canada’s military mandate, Canadian law, and public opinion.
Former NATO boss and former Danish Prime Minister Anders Rasmussen said on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, that Trump’s insistence that Greenland should become part of the US represented the biggest challenge to NATO since its establishment in 1949.
“It’s really the future of NATO that is at stake,” said Rasmussen, who offers a unique perspective on the crisis as a former leader of both Denmark – from 2001 to 2009 – and NATO, where he served as secretary general from 2009 to 2014.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Prime Minister Mark Carney urged middle powers to unite against coercion from aggressive superpowers, warning “compliance will not buy safety” in a world where the rules-based international order has collapsed.
Trump posted a doctored image on social media early Tuesday morning showing the president surrounded by European leaders in the Oval Office with a map displaying Canada, Greenland and Venezuela covered in the US flag. The photo was one in a string of posts from the president overnight.
Screenshot-2026-01-20-Trump-posts-doctored-image-of-U.S.-flag-over-Canada.png
Source:
Mark Colley, Toronto Star: Trump posts doctored image of U.S. flag over Canada, Greenland https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/trump-posts-doctored-image-of-u-s-flag-over-canada-greenland/article_61baa2ca-210a-4526-941c-fa2f54026a10.html
Two senior government officials, not authorized to discuss this matter publicly, told the Globe and Mail that Canadian Armed Forces planners modelling a US invasion from the south, expect US forces to overcome Canada’s strategic positions on land and at sea within a week, and possibly as quickly as two days.
Canada does not have the number of military personnel or the sophisticated equipment needed to fend off a conventional American attack.
Trump’s text message on Sunday, January 18, 2026, to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, stating he no longer feels “an obligation to think purely of peace” after he failed to win Norway’s Nobel Peace Prize, was confirmed by Prime Minister Støre.
Trump questioned Denmark’s claim to Greenland and said he would put American interests first. “The world is not secure unless we have complete and total control of Greenland,” Trump wrote.
NBC News is reporting that Trump is increasingly complaining to aides about Canada’s vulnerability to adversaries in the Arctic.
As Trump works toward annexing Greenland, he has intensified his criticism of what he sees as Canada’s similar inability to defend its borders against any encroachment from Russia or China.
Greenland is not a marginal issue for Europeans. Threats against it cut to the heart of the idea of Europe, of sovereignty, international law and trust. Key European leaders recently stressed they are united in their position that it is up to Denmark and Greenland to decide their own fate — and no one else. The potential for a crisis is real, and what is most confounding is that this would be a crisis that is entirely unnecessary and easily avoidable.
Threatening to annex territory belonging to a NATO ally strikes at the very foundation of the alliance. NATO is not merely a military grouping; it is a community of liberal democracies that has endured precisely because its members trust — and do not threaten — one another. They consult, negotiate and resolve disputes peacefully. This shared political culture is not a luxury — it is NATO’s greatest strategic asset. It sets us apart from those that depend on threats and tricks to keep their “friends” together.
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