Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, writing in Foreign Policy Magazine:
The Iranian regime is suffering heavy blows as a result of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign, but it is not on the verge of collapse. A prolonged war lasting months would increase the probability that it could fall, but it now appears that the war will end before that, with Iran’s current government in place. This means the Islamic Republic is likely to emerge weaker but more violent, aggressive, and vengeful.
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Beyond its borders, Iran will be forced to adapt some aspects of its foreign policy while striving to maintain others. It will likely be emboldened by having shown that it can almost completely close the Strait of Hormuz and dramatically impact global energy prices. Having lost several of its power projection assets, it will therefore rapidly invest in rebuilding the capabilities it needs to threaten shipping in the strait again, specifically its missile and drone programs. It will also enthusiastically remind whoever listens that it could renew its campaign in response to future pressure or threats.
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