Europe | NatSec.ca

With US’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to American extended nuclear deterrence

Rafael Loss, European Council on Foreign Relations, writes:

America’s credibility is in tatters. According to ECFR’s latest public opinion poll, fewer Europeans than ever consider the United States under President Donald Trump “an ally that shares our interests and values”. This shift has been building since at least February 2024, shortly after Trump encouraged Russia to attack “delinquent” US allies on the campaign trail—an intervention that crystallized fears about Washington’s reliability and fuelled Europeans’ desire for alternative models of nuclear deterrence.
Britain and France, Europe’s two nuclear-armed NATO allies, are central in the resultant conversations. Britain’s nuclear weapons have long been committed to the defence of the alliance, whereas France’s deterrent sits outside of the NATO framework. As such, French president Emmanuel Macron’s address on nuclear deterrence, which is due to take place on March 2nd, is sure to draw particular scrutiny.
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America’s eroding credibility means that it remains necessary for France and Britain to retain their nuclear forces, especially when considering future NATO security. However, to become instruments of non-proliferation or escalation management, they require development. To borrow from the latest US Strategic Posture Commission, French and British nuclear forces—as the core of a future European strategic deterrent—likely need to grow in size and change composition (or both) to account for structural changes in US defence strategy and Trump-specific hits to US credibility. But they would not have to replicate the US posture to achieve this.
Moreover, France, Britain and their European partners would also have to agree on joint rhetoric and actions to signal resolve and capability in European deterrence. This is not only to assure each other, but also to deter potential adversaries.

Europe should prepare for coordinated cyberattacks to their energy infrastructure from Russia

In December 2025, a wave of Russian cyberattacks hit energy facilities across Poland, a sign that Moscow may be willing to expand its energy campaign beyond Ukraine.

Chelsea Cederbaum, a senior threat intelligence analyst at the American cybersecurity company Recorded Future, wrote “there’s a high risk of escalation by Russia over the next two years” that could included cyberattacks coordinated across wider regions of Europe’s grid, drone flights close to critical infrastructure, and Kremlin-sponsored digital disinformation campaigns designed to paint European countries as unprepared.

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Fewer Europeans consider the US under Trump “an ally that shares our interests and values”

Célia Belin and Pawel Zerka, at the European Council on Foreign Relations, write:

Across Europe, perceptions of the superpower have further deteriorated since November 2024, when Trump was re-elected. The most-shared perspective in each country, even in traditionally NATO-loving Denmark, Poland and the UK, is that the US is only a “necessary partner” rather than “an ally that shares our interests and values”. That puts it roughly on a par with India, Turkey or even China. In some countries—including Bulgaria, France, Germany, Spain and Switzerland—a quarter or more of the respondents consider the US as a rival or even an adversary.
Only in some countries—Hungary, Poland and the UK—does this issue strongly divide the public. Three Trumpist parties in those places—Fidesz, Law and Justice (PiS) and Reform UK—are Europe’s main outliers. Many of their voters still see the US as the EU’s (or, in the UK’s case, “their country’s”) ally. But this perspective is not widely shared by supporters of other European new-right parties, including the Alternative for Germany (AfD), Brothers of Italy (FdI) and the National Rally (RN) in France. Views on the US have hardly shifted in those three electorates, despite an eventful year and MAGA’s vocal ambitions to bring them closer to its orbit. Moreover, some such parties’ voters (for example, those of the AfD or FdI) have become more critical of what Trump means for American voters than they were a year ago.

The US ambassador to NATO claims the US is not out to dismantle NATO or undermine world order

In response to the Munich Security Report 2026, Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, is defended the US against criticism that the Trump administration’s shift in thinking about its global policies poses a real challenge to the liberal international order.

Source:

The Guardian: US not trying to dismantle NATO or undermine current world order, US ambassador says in response to MSC’s criticism report https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/feb/09/europe-eu-jimmy-lai-ukraine-russia-us-portugal-latest-news-updates

Elsewhere:

Munich Security Report 2026: https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report/2026/

MSC Report asserts Europe needs to be more assertive and militarily independent from the US administration https://natsec.ca/2026/munich-security-report-warns-europe-assertive-militarily-independent-from-us/

MSC Report asserts Europe needs to be more assertive and militarily independent from the US administration

The Munich Security Report 2026 warns the greatest challenge to the liberal international order is “coming from within” through the dramatic shift in the current US administration that no longer shares a commitment to liberal democratic norms, values, and its alliances.

The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics. Sweeping destruction – rather than careful reforms and policy corrections – is the order of the day. The most prominent of those who promise to free their country from the existing order’s constraints and rebuild a stronger, more prosperous nation is the current US administration. As a result, more than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now under destruction.
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Europe is again considering setting up the equivalent of a UN Security Council

EU officials and leaders are getting behind the idea, while lawmakers are drafting legal options.

“We lack a proper united leadership platform to discuss the most important European defense issues,” EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said last week. “It’s now an urgent task to turn this idea into reality.”

Sergey Lagodinsky, a German European Parliament lawmaker and vice president of the Greens group, is proposing a council gathering the leaders of Europe’s big six — Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland and the U.K. — alongside two rotating seats for smaller countries and the European Parliament president.

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An attack on Greenland “would make America weaker, not safer”

Greenland is not a marginal issue for Europeans. Threats against it cut to the heart of the idea of Europe, of sovereignty, international law and trust. Key European leaders recently stressed they are united in their position that it is up to Denmark and Greenland to decide their own fate — and no one else. The potential for a crisis is real, and what is most confounding is that this would be a crisis that is entirely unnecessary and easily avoidable.
Threatening to annex territory belonging to a NATO ally strikes at the very foundation of the alliance. NATO is not merely a military grouping; it is a community of liberal democracies that has endured precisely because its members trust — and do not threaten — one another. They consult, negotiate and resolve disputes peacefully. This shared political culture is not a luxury — it is NATO’s greatest strategic asset. It sets us apart from those that depend on threats and tricks to keep their “friends” together.
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Europe is entering a new state of alert in the face of US hostility

Europe has entered a new state of alert in the face of US open hostility in areas that go beyond simple economic and technological competition and touch the deepest core of strategic and security issues.

A day after US military and civilian forces staged an illegal incursion into Venezuela, during which President Nicolás Maduro was kidnapped and captured and transported to New York City, Trump asserted that his country needs Greenland — an autonomous territory belonging to Denmark, a member of NATO.

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Russia’s sabotage operations quadrupled in 2025

According to data compiled by the IISS, Russian shadow warfare attacks targeting Europe’s critical infrastructure have accelerated steadily since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and intensified further in 2024 and 2025, with incidents spanning the Baltics and Nordics, Central Europe, the Balkans, and the Mediterranean in patterns that reflect strategic intent.
These operations include sabotage of transport and logistics hubs, attacks on energy and communications infrastructure, disruptions to undersea cables, and acts of espionage, arson, vandalism, GPS jamming, and proxy-enabled activity carried out by third-country nationals, all designed to impose cumulative pressure while remaining just below NATO’s Article 5 threshold.
Russia is exploiting the gaps between peace and war, law enforcement and military response, and public and private responsibility, confident that NATO’s legal thresholds, political caution, and consensus-driven paralysis will continue to prevent a unified response to an attack that is already underway.

January 4, 2025
Olga Lautman and Luchkov Andrii, Malign Influence Operations: Russia’s Sabotage Operations Quadrupled in 2025: Europe’s Rude Awakening

Without Europe, the US ceases to be a leader

Geo-politically, marginalizing Europe will also come at a cost. The small peninsula is well sited for American needs. Forward-based radar makes it easier to counteract missiles lobbed by Russia or Iran. Military bases allow the world’s mightiest armed forces to operate in the Middle East and Africa. Having Europe onside helps project power in other ways. Sanctions work best when both sides of the Atlantic join in. By accepting the global supremacy of the dollar, Europeans leave themselves little choice but to enforce America’s boycotts, even when they disagree. Push too hard and they may try to free themselves from that, too.
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