With US’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to American extended nuclear deterrence

Rafael Loss, European Council on Foreign Relations, writes:

America’s credibility is in tatters. According to ECFR’s latest public opinion poll, fewer Europeans than ever consider the United States under President Donald Trump “an ally that shares our interests and values”. This shift has been building since at least February 2024, shortly after Trump encouraged Russia to attack “delinquent” US allies on the campaign trail—an intervention that crystallized fears about Washington’s reliability and fuelled Europeans’ desire for alternative models of nuclear deterrence.

Britain and France, Europe’s two nuclear-armed NATO allies, are central in the resultant conversations. Britain’s nuclear weapons have long been committed to the defence of the alliance, whereas France’s deterrent sits outside of the NATO framework. As such, French president Emmanuel Macron’s address on nuclear deterrence, which is due to take place on March 2nd, is sure to draw particular scrutiny.

America’s eroding credibility means that it remains necessary for France and Britain to retain their nuclear forces, especially when considering future NATO security. However, to become instruments of non-proliferation or escalation management, they require development. To borrow from the latest US Strategic Posture Commission, French and British nuclear forces—as the core of a future European strategic deterrent—likely need to grow in size and change composition (or both) to account for structural changes in US defence strategy and Trump-specific hits to US credibility. But they would not have to replicate the US posture to achieve this.

Moreover, France, Britain and their European partners would also have to agree on joint rhetoric and actions to signal resolve and capability in European deterrence. This is not only to assure each other, but also to deter potential adversaries.

‘Europe has woken up’: Germany, France, Italy, Poland and the UK commit to produce low-cost drones within a year

Five NATO allies, Germany, France, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom, on Friday February 20, 2026, committed to jointly develop new low-cost autonomous drones.

Defence ministers from the five countries – newly known as the E5 countries – meeting in Krakow, said they would launch an initiative called Low-Cost Effectors and Autonomous Platforms (LEAP) with the aim of producing drones within a year.

The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, was in attendance for the announcement.

Press conference after the meeting of the E5 defense ministers

Sources:

Politico: 5 NATO allies agree to produce low-cost drones https://www.politico.eu/article/5-nato-allies-agree-to-produce-low-cost-drones/

Euronews: E5 defence ministers in Krakow say ‘Europe has woken up’ https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/20/e5-defence-ministers-in-krakow-say-europe-has-woken-up

France sends flagship aircraft carrier into North Atlantic as European leaders close ranks over Greenland and tensions test NATO unity

The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle set sail from the Mediterranean port of Toulon.

French officials declined to give precise details of its route, sources said the carrier strike group is heading into the North Atlantic,

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China has blacklisted US ,Israeli, and French cybersecurity products, citing ‘national security concerns’

Chinese authorities have instructed domestic companies to stop using cybersecurity software from the United States, Israel, and France due to national security concerns.

The blacklisted cybersecurity software is reportedly from Alphabet (Mandiant and Wiz), Broadcom (VMware), Cato Networks, Check Point Software Technologies, Claroty, CrowdStrike, CyberArk, Fortinet, Imperva, McAfee, Orca Security, Palo Alto Networks, Rapid7, Recorded Future, SentinelOne, and VMware.

China bans select US and Israeli cybersecurity tools: sources | REUTERS

Sources:

Reuters: Beijing tells Chinese firms to stop using US and Israeli cybersecurity software, sources say https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-tells-chinese-firms-stop-using-us-israeli-cybersecurity-software-sources-2026-01-14/

Rithula Nisha Ebrahim, Cyber Magazine: Why has China Banned a Host of Major Cybersecurity Firms? https://cybermagazine.com/news/inside-chinas-ban-of-major-us-and-israeli-cyber-firms

Europe is again considering setting up the equivalent of a UN Security Council

EU officials and leaders are getting behind the idea, while lawmakers are drafting legal options.

“We lack a proper united leadership platform to discuss the most important European defense issues,” EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said last week. “It’s now an urgent task to turn this idea into reality.”

Sergey Lagodinsky, a German European Parliament lawmaker and vice president of the Greens group, is proposing a council gathering the leaders of Europe’s big six — Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland and the U.K. — alongside two rotating seats for smaller countries and the European Parliament president.

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An attack on Greenland “would make America weaker, not safer”

Greenland is not a marginal issue for Europeans. Threats against it cut to the heart of the idea of Europe, of sovereignty, international law and trust. Key European leaders recently stressed they are united in their position that it is up to Denmark and Greenland to decide their own fate — and no one else. The potential for a crisis is real, and what is most confounding is that this would be a crisis that is entirely unnecessary and easily avoidable.

Threatening to annex territory belonging to a NATO ally strikes at the very foundation of the alliance. NATO is not merely a military grouping; it is a community of liberal democracies that has endured precisely because its members trust — and do not threaten — one another. They consult, negotiate and resolve disputes peacefully. This shared political culture is not a luxury — it is NATO’s greatest strategic asset. It sets us apart from those that depend on threats and tricks to keep their “friends” together.

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Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, France, and the UK are sending troops to Greenland [Updated]

Amid continued threats by Trump to annex Greenland, the territory of Denmark, a fellow NATO member, multiple outlets report Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Canada are sending troops to Greenland.

The deployment is not meant to spark a confrontation against the US, but a measure to ensure the common security interests of all NATO partners.

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Europe and allies are working out plans should US make move on Greenland

France is working with partners on a plan over how to respond should the Americans act on its threat to take over Greenland, Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Wednesday, January 7, 2026.

Barrot said the subject would be raised at his meeting with the foreign ministers of Germany and Poland later in the day.

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European leaders rally to support Denmark and Greenland

“Greenland belongs to its people, and only Denmark and Greenland can decide on matters concerning their relations,” the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Denmark said in a joint statement on Tuesday January 6, 2026.

“NATO has made clear that the Arctic region is a priority and European Allies are stepping up,” the statement said. “We and many ‌other Allies have increased our presence, activities, and investments, to keep the Arctic safe and to deter adversaries.”

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